𝚽 Index analysis
In depth analysis of NIFTY 50 and its performance outlook for 2025 basis proprietary algorithm of 𝚽 1POINT6 available only to investors.
Task
Analysis of the NIFTY 50 based on 𝚽 1POINT6 algorithm and Technical Chart for the period of April - Sep 2025.
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NIFTY 50 Index Analysis (Apr – Sep 2025)
Price Action Overview
Current Level (Sep 30, 2025 close): 24,611 (−0.10%)
52-Week Range: 21,744 – 25,669
Recent Swing High: ~25,209 (mid-Sep 2025)
Recent Swing Low: ~24,337 (late Sep 2025)
From April 2025 onwards, Nifty 50 has witnessed sharp swings, initially recovering from April lows, testing the upper resistance band near 25,500–25,600, and subsequently facing a correction in September. The recent failure at ~25,209 highlights strong supply pressure near upper channel resistance.
Trend Structure
Primary Trend (6M): Still uptrend, with higher highs and higher lows intact since June.
Intermediate Trend (3M): Weak corrective phase — Nifty has retraced from the September peak of ~25,200 to ~24,600 (−2.5%).
Short-Term Trend (1M): Bearish bias, as price trades below short-term moving averages.
Technical Indicators
Moving Averages & Cloud
Price is below the short-term bands (yellow/blue HMA ribbons), but above the broader green cloud support zone (~24,300–24,400).
Suggests near-term weakness but medium-term support intact.
Support & Resistance Zones
Support:
24,337 (recent swing low, immediate support)
24,100–24,200 (historical support cluster & fib zone)
Resistance:
24,980–25,200 (supply zone)
25,500–25,600 (major resistance, previous highs & purple channel top)
MACD & Momentum
MACD histogram is negative, red bars extending → momentum bearish.
A crossover below zero line could trigger further downside.
Volume
Recent correction accompanied by higher volumes, confirming selling pressure.
Seasonality
Historical data (table in chart) suggests October-November are mixed months, often volatile, with December typically posting mild gains.
Performance Snapshot
1 Week: −2.37%
1 Month: +0.59%
3 Months: −3.82%
6 Months: +6.31%
YTD (2025): +4.12%
1 Year: −5.56%
This shows that despite short-term volatility, the 6M trend remains net positive, but longer-term 1Y returns are negative, reflecting a correction from 2024 highs.
Forward Outlook (Oct 2025 – Early 2026)
Bullish Case (Probability ~48%)
If Nifty holds above 24,300–24,400, a rebound towards 25,000–25,200 is likely.
Break above 25,200 could retest 25,500–25,600, and beyond that opens doors to 26,000+ in early 2026.
Bearish Case (Probability ~52%)
A close below 24,300 would extend correction towards 24,000–23,800 zone.
Sustained break below 23,800 may turn medium-term structure bearish.
Neutral Base Case
Expect sideways consolidation between 24,200–25,200 for October before a directional breakout in Q4.
Conclusion
Nifty 50 (Apr–Sep 2025) has maintained its broader uptrend, but September correction signals caution.
Support zone 24,300–24,400 is crucial: holding above it keeps bullish structure intact.
Short-term weakness persists, but medium-term outlook remains constructive unless 23,800 breaks.
For Q4 2025, expect volatile consolidation with upward bias, with 25,200 and 25,600 as upside checkpoints.
✅ In summary:
Near-term (1M): Bearish bias / sideways consolidation.
Medium-term (3–6M): Positive outlook if 24,300 support holds.
Long-term (2026): Scope for new highs above 26,000 if global + domestic liquidity supports.